The 2027 general elections could bring significant changes to the composition of Nigeria’s National Assembly. The list of candidates released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) provides an early indication of who is seeking a place in the next Assembly and who will not be returning to contest their current seats.
Preliminary analysis of the INEC candidate list shows that 52 of the 109 current Senators will not be contesting in 2027, representing 47.7 per cent of the current Senate. In the House of Representatives, 114 of the 360 current members are also absent from the ballot, representing 31.7 per cent of the current House. However, the final number of members who will not return will only be known after the elections, when the results determine which sitting members retain their seats.
The prospect of significant turnover is not unprecedented, as only about 30 per cent of members of the 9th National Assembly returned to the 10th. The movement of sitting members between political parties could further alter the composition of the 11th National Assembly, with preliminary analysis showing notable movement among PDP members of the 10th National Assembly to other parties, particularly the All Progressives Congress (APC), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
The gender composition of the candidate list also raises questions about the character of the 11th National Assembly, with women accounting for only 9.7 per cent of candidates for the House of Representatives and 9.4 per cent of candidates for the Senate. The limited presence of women on the ballot could have implications for the diversity of voices and perspectives represented in the next Assembly.
The candidate list provides an early glimpse of what lies ahead, but the more important question is whether these changes will produce a National Assembly that is different in character from those that came before it.
The Contest Begins with Unequal Reach
The geographical spread of candidates is another feature of the 2027 National Assembly elections that could influence the character of the 11th NASS.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is the only political party fielding candidates in all 360 federal constituencies and all 109 senatorial districts, giving it complete coverage across both legislative elections.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) comes closest to this level of coverage, with candidates in every seat except the Delta South Senatorial District. The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has also fielded candidates across most of the country, with gaps in ten constituencies, namely, Bauchi South, Bauchi Central, Bauchi North, Benue North East, Ekiti South, Jigawa North East, Kaduna South, Katsina Central, Yobe East and Yobe North.
The differences in geographical reach become more pronounced among parties with a smaller presence. The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and African Action Congress (AAC) have candidates in 52 and 54 House of Representatives federal constituencies, respectively, compared with just 10 for the Boot Party (BP) and four for the Youth Party (YP). The same disparity is evident in the Senate, where the NNPP and AAC are contesting 21 and 25 senatorial districts respectively, compared with seven for the BP and four for the YP.
The eventual composition of the 11th NASS will therefore emerge from a contest in which parties are not competing across the same electoral map, with the breadth of their presence determining where voters encounter their candidates and, ultimately, which parties have the opportunity to translate that presence into seats.
Women Underrepresented Even Before Voting Begins
The gender composition of the candidate list is another notable feature of the 2027 elections, with women making up fewer than one in ten candidates for both chambers of the National Assembly.
In the Senate, only 123 of the 1,303 candidates are women, representing 9.44 per cent of the total. The proportion is similar in the House of Representatives, where 346 of the 3,560 candidates are women, representing 9.72 per cent.
The distribution of female candidates also varies considerably across states. In the Senate, Akwa Ibom has the highest number of female candidates, with 10, while Jigawa, Nasarawa, Niger and Yobe have no female candidates at all.
The variation is even more pronounced in the House of Representatives, where women account for less than two per cent of candidates in Katsina, Kano, Zamfara and Nasarawa. Katsina has one woman among 104 candidates, Kano has three among 251, while Zamfara and Nasarawa each have one woman among 72 and 61 candidates, respectively.
Some southern states record substantially higher levels of female participation. Lagos has the highest number of female House of Representatives candidates, with 31, while Kwara has the highest proportion, with women accounting for 16 of its 65 candidates, or 24.6 per cent.
The geographical variation means that the pool of female candidates available to voters differs considerably across the country, with some constituencies offering several female candidates while others have none.
The gender imbalance extends to the presidential and vice-presidential contests where women account for two of the 18 presidential candidates, or 11.1 per cent, while four of the 18 vice-presidential candidates are women, representing 22.2 per cent.
There is also a noticeable gap in continuity among women already serving in the National Assembly. Of the 16 current women members of the House identified in the data, nine appear on the 2027 final list while seven do not. In the Senate, three of the four current women Senators identified in the data appear on the final list, while one does not.
With the overall pool of women candidates already small, the absence of some incumbent women from the ballot adds another layer to the challenge of maintaining women’s representation in the National Assembly. The candidate list thus shows that women’s participation remains limited not only in overall numbers, but also across the different states and levels of the electoral contest.
A Different Assembly, or More of the Same?
The 11th National Assembly is likely to have a different configuration, with a significant number of current members not returning, changes in party affiliation and considerable variation in the geographical and gender composition of candidates. Whether these changes will translate into a different character for the Assembly will depend on more than who occupies the seats after the elections.
The 10th National Assembly has faced sustained criticism over its relationship with the executive, with some commentators describing it as a “rubber stamp” and questioning the extent to which it has exercised its legislative responsibilities of oversight, representation, and lawmaking.
The composition and leadership of the 11th NASS will therefore be closely watched, particularly to see how the new Assembly approaches its relationship with the executive and the responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the citizens it represents.